When ideaForge debuted on the public markets in July 2023, it felt like a moment for Indian defence-tech. The IPO was subscribed 106 times. The stock soared. And investors believed they had found the next big thing in drones.
This wasn’t just hype. ideaForge was building drones for the Indian Army, NDRF, and state police forces. It was offering “Drone-as-a-Service” to civil sectors like mining and logistics. And it had its own IP stack, design, software, deployment, all in-house.
Cut to May 2025, and the picture looks a lot more complicated.
The stock is down over 75% from its post-listing high. Q4 FY25 revenue collapsed 80% YoY. The company swung from a ₹10 crore profit to a ₹25 crore loss. And its once-booming order book? Down 93% in just one year.
So what exactly happened?
The demand didn’t vanish. The orders just got delayed.
ideaForge’s biggest customer is the Indian government. That brings scale—but also volatility. In Q4, several large defence orders were deferred or pushed into FY26. That alone wiped out quarterly profitability.
But the deeper issue wasn’t just timing. It was visibility.
The company’s confirmed order book stood at just ₹125 crore as of March 2024. A year ago, it was ₹1,923 crore. That kind of drop doesn’t just hurt revenue projections, it rattles investor confidence. If new orders don’t land quickly, even solid IP can’t pay the bills.
The model gives it control. But also burns cash.
Unlike other drone players that outsource parts of the stack, ideaForge is vertically integrated. It builds its own drones, writes its own flight software, and controls deployments. That gives it technical depth, but also makes the business capital-hungry.
Fixed assets nearly tripled to ₹193 crore in FY25. Inventory levels rose. Debtor days increased from 52 to 127. And while the company remains debt-free, it’s now in a negative cash flow zone. That’s fine, if you have a pipeline to match. Right now, it doesn’t.
And expansion isn’t the issue. Monetisation is.
ideaForge is still innovating. It’s launched AI-powered drones that work without GPS. It’s selling training services. It’s entered the US and Middle East. It holds export licences and is filing patents. The tech is real. The ambition is clear.
But revenue growth hasn’t kept pace. And global expansion, while promising, hasn’t yet shown up in the numbers.
The stock has cooled and so have expectations.
Despite the May 2025 rally (triggered by rising border tensions), ideaForge still trades at a steep 3.8x book, high for a loss-making company with negative ROCE. Promoter holding is down to 29%. Institutions are mostly sitting on the sidelines.
Peers like Paras Defence and MTAR offer stronger margins, steadier cash flow, and more predictable order books. The valuation gap reflects that.
Final pour: ideaForge is still in the game but it’s no longer playing on momentum. The company needs stable orders, smoother cash cycles, and better execution to match its engineering talent. This isn’t about hype anymore. It’s about delivery.
India’s drone story isn’t over. For now, with ideaForge investors will need to fly through some turbulence.
