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May 13, 20253 min read

Lupin is up 20% this year. What changed?

Lupin is up 20% this year. What changed?

There was a time not long ago when Lupin felt like a shadow of its former self.

Once hailed as one of India’s most globalised pharmaceutical companies, it had hit a rough patch—regulatory setbacks, shrinking US margins, compliance issues, and a generics landscape evolving faster than expected. US filings slowed, warning letters piled up, and price erosion began to eat into topline growth.

For investors, the question was no longer about growth. It was about survival and course correction.

Cut to 2025, and Lupin is quietly scripting one of the cleanest turnarounds in Indian pharma.

No major M&A. No splashy pivots. Just a methodical rebuild across core generics, manufacturing quality, and cost discipline.

In a sector known for volatility, Lupin is becoming something rare: predictable.

By the numbers:

  • Market capitalisation: ₹91,000 crore
  • Total revenue (FY24): ₹19,283 crore
  • Net profit (FY24): ₹1,276 crore
  • US business (Q4 FY24): ₹1,813 crore, up 18.4% YoY

Financials: Lupin has made visible improvements in its cost structure. FY24 saw operating margins expand by nearly 300 basis points, driven by leaner supply chains, better manufacturing utilisation, and lower input costs.

It also reduced gross debt by 40% in FY24, and expects to be debt-free by Q1 FY25—freeing up room for reinvestment and easing pressure on cash flows.

EBITDA crossed ₹1,000 crore in Q4 FY24—a 66% YoY increase.

The launches are worth tracking: Lupin’s US business, once weighed down by price erosion and regulatory delays, is seeing a reset.

In May 2025, it secured FDA approval for Raltegravir Tablets USP, 600 mg, a generic HIV drug with sole first-to-file status, giving it 180 days of exclusivity. It also launched Eslicarbazepine Acetate Tablets for partial-onset seizures, with shared exclusivity rights.

Both drugs are complex generics, expanding Lupin’s high-margin portfolio. And both are manufactured in India, keeping cost structures lean.

The broader US business has also rebounded. Revenue rose 18.4% YoY in Q4 FY24, supported by specialty launches, regulatory clearances, and improved product availability. The pipeline now includes more complex molecules and inhalation products—categories that improve pricing power and stability.

So what’s the problem?

On May 6, US President Trump signed an executive order to fast-track domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing. The move aims to reduce dependence on imports from countries like India and China.

That single announcement triggered a sector-wide dip. Lupin, which earns over 35% of its revenue from the US, fell nearly 2% in a day. The market is factoring in the risk of long-term pricing and volume pressure if this “Made in USA” push gets aggressive.

It’s not just optics. Subsidies, faster approvals, or procurement incentives for local players could gradually eat into market share for Indian exporters.

Domestic steady, overseas picking up: India remains a stable contributor, with chronic therapies and consumer brands holding ground.

What’s notable is the improving contribution from Europe and emerging markets. While still modest in absolute terms, these geographies are part of Lupin’s effort to diversify beyond the US.

API exports have also gained momentum, supported by backward integration and steady demand from regulated markets.

What makes this worth tracking: Lupin isn’t delivering multibagger returns. But the turnaround is showing up where it matters.

Profits are up. Margins have recovered. Debt is down. The pipeline is getting stronger, with an emphasis on complex, high-barrier products and operational leverage.

Execution risk never disappears in pharma. But Lupin has addressed its compliance issues and is now focused on sustainable, capital-efficient growth.

Final Pour: Pharma turnarounds are rarely linear. But Lupin’s feels intentional.

It didn’t chase headlines. It fixed its plants, secured approvals, cleaned up its balance sheet, and kept execution tight. While others went for aggressive expansion or risky diversification, Lupin went back to basics—and the numbers reflect it.

It may not be the sector’s loudest story. But it’s earned its place back on investor watchlists.

Because in this market, boring but consistent might just be the new moat.

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