Newsletter
China's rare move, EV bets, and Tariff tsunami.
š Morning, folks!
Markets closed higher for the third straight day, with the Sensex and Nifty rising nearly 0.5% eachāmarking their highest levels in two weeks.
The rally was driven by strong buying in banking and life insurance stocks.
š” Spotlight: Apple just had a record quarter in India.
Early IDC estimates show over 3 million iPhones were shipped between January and March 2025, a sharp jump from 2.21 million in Q1 last year.
The boost comes largely from the newly launched iPhone 16 series, with the budget-friendly iPhone 16e making up more than half of all shipments.
Letās hit it!
1 Big Thing: Netflix eyes the trillion-dollar club š°
Netflix now wants to stream its way into Wall Street royalty.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the company shared in an internal memo with employees that it wants to hit a $1 trillion market cap by 2030.
Thatās nearly 3x its current ~$400 billion valuation, putting it in the same league as Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia, but with the singular business of streaming.
To get there, Netflix has a two-part plan:
- Double revenue from $39 billion to $78 billion.
- Grow subscribers from 300 million to 410 million which is an average of 21 million new users a year.
The platform is also banking big on ads. It wants to rack up $9 billion in annual ad sales by 2030, led by its ad-supported tier, live events (which force even ad-free users to watch commercials), and its new in-house ad tech platform: Netflix Ads Suite.
Why it matters: if Netflix pulls this off, itāll become the first pure-play streaming company to crack the $1 trillion mark with no e-commerce, no gadgets, just content and eyeballs. It also raises the bar for every other platform, as streaming shifts from growth-at-all-costs to real profitability and innovation.
Zoom out: Netflixās revenue nearly doubled between 2019 and 2024, but that growth came in a very different market, one with less competition and rapid streaming adoption. Today, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, and even YouTube are in the ring, and global growth won't be easy.
Still, Netflix remains the most profitable streamer, pulling in $8.7 billion in net income last year, far ahead of Disney or Warner Bros. Discovery, who only just turned a profit.
And itās shown it can survive tough markets: while the S&P 500 stumbled, Netflix stock is up 10% in 2025 YTD.
2. Chinaās magnetic move š§²
As the U.S.āChina trade war heats up, Beijing just played one of its most powerful cardsāhalting exports of rare earth metals, a move that could send shockwaves through everything from EVs to missiles.
What are rare earths: there are 17 of themānot actually rare, but notoriously hard (and toxic) to mine. Theyāre essential in making magnets, semiconductors, EV motors, LED lights, and even AI chips and military hardware.
Most manufacturers donāt stockpile them.
And China controls the game. It produces over 99% of the worldās heavy rare earths and 90% of rare earth magnets. The U.S. once had a thriving domestic industry, but it faded in the ā80s as companies turned to cheaper Chinese sources.
Since 2020, the U.S. has pumped $439 million into rebuilding local supply chains, but it's nowhere near Chinaās scale yet.
Why it matters: this isnāt just a tariff tit-for-tat. Cutting off rare earth exports risks slowing down Americaās EV sector, AI chip supply, and even military readiness. China also paused all Boeing aircraft deliveries, hitting the U.S.ās top exporter where it hurts.
Zoom out: with rare earths, China isnāt just reacting, itās reminding the world that some supply chains are still dangerously one-sided.
3. KFintech takes a bet on Ascent š¤
KFin Technologies is acquiring a 51% stake in Ascent Fund Services for $34.7 million.
KFin, best known for managing mutual fund processing and registrar services, is one of Indiaās leading issuer solutions platforms. It works with asset managers, pension funds, and corporates across markets, handling everything from IPO processing to shareholder records.
Ascent, is a Mauritius-based fund administrator specializing in hedge funds, private equity, and VC fund services.
The deal gives KFintech a direct entry into offshore fund management, with Mauritius being a critical hub for global AIFs.
Zoom out: fund administration may not be glamorous, but it's mission-critical. With India's capital markets booming and retail participation hitting new highs, issuer solutions are becoming the invisible backbone of financial infrastructure.
While weāre on acquisitions...
OpenAI is in talks to acquire Windsurf (formerly Codeium) for around $3 billion, as it doubles down on AI coding tools.
Windsurf competes with Cursor, Replit, and even OpenAIās own featuresāpart of the growing āvibe codeā trend.
The deal comes weeks after OpenAI closed a record-breaking $40 billion round at a $300 billion valuation.
Windsurf was founded in 2021 by two young MIT grads.
4. Wheels up for e-bus stocks š
Shares of JBM Auto and Olectra Greentech surged up to 10% after reports confirmed the government is prepping a tender for 10,000 electric buses under the PM E-DRIVE Scheme.
This scheme was launched in late 2024 to boost EVs, build charging stations, and support over 14,000 e-buses across India.
Why it matters: with over 12,000 e-buses already on the road, government backing through schemes like FAME-II and E-DRIVE is unlocking scale, affordability, and adoption.
5. Quick IPOs in focus š
Figma has filed for a confidential IPO in the US.
The deets: Figma is a cloud-based design platform that lets teams collaborate in real-time to create user interfaces, websites, and digital products.
It now joins the likes of Reddit, Stripe, and Shein in taking the confidential route to go public amid a still-uncertain market backdrop.
Confidential filings let companies test IPO waters without disclosing full financials until theyāre ready to move ahead.
The why: IPO plan comes after regulators in Europe and the UK blocked Adobeās mega acquisition in December 2023, calling it anti-competitive.
Big theme: the US IPO market made a flashy comeback in 2023, but tariff-led volatility has cooled the momentum. Still, design unicorns like Figma are hoping investor interest will hold strong for standout software players.
While we are on IPOs,
Aegis Vopak Terminals has received SEBIās final go-ahead for its ā¹3,500 crore public issue.
The deets: Aegis Vopak is Indiaās largest third-party operator of LPG and liquid storage terminals. It manages over 1.5 million cubic meters of liquid storage and 70,800 metric tonnes of LPG capacity across its network in the country.
The IPO will be a completely fresh issue of equity shares.
What else are we snackinā šæ
āļø Sunscreen spat: Mamaearth parent Honasa sued HUL over a Lakme ad it claims hurts its productās credibility. HUL fired back with a countersuit.
š Gold glows: Gold hit an all-time high of ā¹95,090/10g in the futures market, before settling at ā¹95,000, up nearly 2%.
š³ Pay nod: PB Fintech arm PB Pay got RBI's in-principle approval to run as an online payment aggregator.
š OpenAI goes social: OpenAI is said to be building a social network with a ChatGPT-powered image feed, aiming to rival Elon Muskās X. ā
šØš³ Tariff tsunami: China now faces up to 245% tariffs on U.S. imports after its retaliation, as Trump orders a probe into national security risks tied to critical mineral imports.
š BluSmart Glitch: BluSmart has halted ride bookings in parts of Delhi-NCR and Bengaluru, hinting at deeper troubles amid parent firm Gensolās ongoing issues.
And thatās a wrap. Pour yourself an extra one this weekend.
Markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday so weāll be back like clockwork on Monday. š¤
Hit that š if you liked this issue.
